Global Political news/blog for IB Global Politics
Amid a sudden resurgence of rebel forces within Syria, President Bashar al-Assad fled the country. With the former dictator now in Russia and Damascus under opposition control, various nations with interests in Syria have begun making moves.
Israel
Israel was a staunch opponent of the Assad regime, who were vocal backers of Iran. Iranian-made missiles were often funneled through Syria to Hezbollah, before being launched into Israel. Israel has launched a ground offensive into Syria, violating a UN-imposed buffer zone on the border between the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and Syria. A series of airstrikes have also been launched against Syrian military targets, including in Damascus. Israel will likely use this regime change as a chance to cripple Syrian defense infrastructure, as they have accused Syria of harboring clandestine weapons that could be used in an attack on Israel.
Russia
The fall of Assad’s government is a key loss for Russia’s foreign influence. Assad had received Russian support, financially and militarily, and Russia had also led airstrikes against rebel-held territory and Kurdish groups. Russian warships have recently been reported to be in proximity to Syria, positioned in the Mediterranean Sea. It remains unclear whether Russia will attempt to retain influence within the country under their current temporary government.
United States
The United States has become less involved in Syria since the start of the civil war, with President Trump having withdrawn support for Kurdish groups during his presidency. President Biden spoke to King Abdullah II of Jordan on December 9th, a country Biden has described as an important ally. Biden has advocated a democratic transition process for Syria, which was outlined in United Nations Security Council Resolution 2254. Although the US has designated many of the rebel groups as terrorist organizations, that position could potentially change, according to White House statements. US involvement in Syria in coming months will most likely be as a result of anti-ISIS operations, especially airstrikes.
Syrian people
Syrian citizens have worked to liberate prisons that were run by the Assad regime. These prisons were known to arbitrarily detain perceived enemies of Assad, often torturing or killing civilians. The Syrian rebel forces have announced amnesty plans for conscripted soldiers under Assad, but also plans to prosecute members of the regime for war crimes and crimes against the Syrian people.
The Syrian Civil War began over a decade ago, motivated by the Arab Spring uprisings that spread across North Africa and the Middle East. Many of these countries, such as Libya, have been plagued with instability due to the fall of dictatorial leaders. It remains to be seen if Syria will end up in a similar predicament, or be able to set up a well-functioning government in the current power vacuum.
Ahmed al-Sharaa, former leader of the HTS rebel movement, has since dissolved the 2012 Assad-backed constitution, and has pledged a transitional government. He has appointed himself as the interim president during this period. While Western nations remain concerned about the implementation of democratic processes, it still is largely unclear how Sharaa plans to structure the new Syrian government.
